Week 7 Model Predictions

We are starting to see some regression to the mean as far as the over/unders this year are concerned. After 4 weeks of overs hitting much more than unders, we’ve had 2 weeks with lots of unders and now overs are only up 47-43 for the year (we tried to tell you this would happen LOL).

Als0, take a look at our CapWize Betting Dashboard for NFL Week 7, which includes betting %, money %, and our simulation model predictions below also.

NYG @ PHI (-4) (43.5)

Prime time NFC (L)east battle between two of the worst teams in the league. The model likes NYG to cover coming off a win last week along with the OVER.

Model Score Prediction- (23-23)

 

CLE (-3.5) @ CIN (50.5)

In a rematch of week 2’s 35-30 Browns win, the model likes CLE to win this one by a touchdown and the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- 26-18 Browns

 

DAL @ WAS (PK) (46)

In the other NFC (L)east battle this week, the model likes DAL and the UNDER, although this is also still factoring in Dak in most of the Cowboys’ stats. I’d ignore the model for this one for that reason.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

DET @ ATL (-2.5) (56.5)

Last week the Falcons made it two teams in two weeks to put up a big win after firing their head coach. The model likes them to win this one by 4, as well as the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- (27-23) Falcons

 

CAR @ NO (-7.5) (51)

Every Saints game this year has hit at least 57 points. Panthers have gone under 4 games in a row. The model likes CAR to win outright and the OVER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

BUF (-13) @ NYJ (46)

The Jets are currently 0-6 against the spread. Will they go 0-7 or is this the week they finally cover? The Bills won the first game between these teams by 10 at home. The model likes NYJ to cover (by less than half a point) and the OVER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

GB (-3.5) @ HOU (56)

The Packers got shut down last week for the first time all year. The model likes them to bounce back in a big way here. GB by 2 scores and the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

SEA (-3.5) @ ARI (56.5)

The Cardinals have gone under in all 6 of their games this year so I find it unusual that this game is tied for the highest line of the week. Neither of these teams have played a team that is currently above .500, so its a little hard to tell how they will do against tougher opposition. The model likes SEA to barely cover and the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

SF @ NE (-2.5) (45.5)

The 49ers pulled off a win against the Rams last week, looking like things are finally coming together for them with key players returning from injury. The Pats lost last week to the Broncos. That said, the model likes NE to win this one outright and the UNDER (by half a point).

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

KC (-9.5) @ DEN (48)

The model likes KC to win this one by 2 scores and the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

TB (-3) @ LV (53.5)

The Bucs are averaging over 12 points fewer on the road than they are at home, going 3-0 at home and 1-2 on the road. LV to win this one outright and the UNDER.

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

PIT (-2) @ TEN (52.5)

In a battle of two teams that are unexpectedly 5-0, the model likes PIT to cover and the OVER.

Model Score Prediction- 32-20 Steelers

 

JAX @ LAC (-8) (49.5)

The model likes JAX to cover and the OVER. 

Model Score Prediction- Available to subscribers

 

CHI @ LAR (-5.5) (45.5)

The Bears aren’t exactly inspiring with the way they play, but they are 5-1 for a reason. CHI to win outright and the OVER.

Model Score Prediction- (27-20) Bears