Washington at Bills (-7.5, 45)
Washington at Bills should be fun match-up as the Washington Football team heads north to face Buffalo this weekend with Kickoff scheduled for 1 PM on Sunday. After a close opening weekend loss to the Chargers, the WFT was able to hang on last week and pull off a 30-29 win versus the Giants. Meanwhile, the Bills return home after taking care of the Dolphins in Miami, 35-0. Washington’s QB1, Taylor Heinicke, will be making the first true road start of his career and will certainly be hearing it from Bills Mafia. The last time these two teams met was in 2019, where Buffalo ended up winning 24-9.
The model has Washington at Bills with a median score of 26.87 to 21.82 with the Bills winning the game. This gives a point total of 48.69 points, which is creeping over the current line, 45, by over a field goal. To see more scores for Week 3, head to the CapWize NFL Dashboard. You can learn more about the CapWize Model here.
Given the shutout by the Bills defense last weekend, this indicates the model sees Heinicke and the WFT having some offensive success in this game. Last weekend, Heinicke was 34/46 with 336 yards passing, 2 TD and 1 INT against a shaky NYG defense. Heinicke spread the ball around with four different players tallying 5 receptions or more, with Scarry Terry McLaurin recording 11 receptions on 14 targets with 107 yards and a TD. Antonio Gibson led the team in rushing with 69 yards on 13 carries and tallied 2 receptions for 4 yards. With another week to prepare, can the WFT repeat this offensive success in Buffalo?
The Bills were quickly able to right the ship in week two. After a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh in week one, Buffalo came out on a mission versus Miami. It should be noted that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa left the game after two offensive series with what has since been diagnosed as fractured ribs. The Bills’ defense ended up holding Miami to 260 total yards while racking up 6 sacks and 1 INT. Despite a beatdown on paper, the numbers may tell a different story. Josh Allen threw for 2 TDs however was only 17/33 with 179 yards. Allen was intercepted by Xavien Howard in the 2Q, while Zack Moss also fumbled in the first quarter. Tyler Bass missed a FG to end the 1H, although it was a 53-yard kick at that. There were certainly sloppy moments in the game last week for Buffalo and their defense was able to blanket Brissett and the Dolphins to keep any issues at bay. Can the Bills clean it up at home against a tough defensive front in the WFT?
For player props, the model is predicting Heinicke throwing for 269.5 yards with 2.17 TDs and 0.7 INTs and Allen’s stat line to look like 282 yards with 2.61 TDs and 0.5 INTs. Antonio Gibson is projected to rush for 53.19 yards on 13.9 touches with 0.3 TDs. The Bills RB committee of Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are predicted to rush for 37.34 and 53.94 yards, respectively. Terry McLaurin is projected to have 71.24 receiving yards on 6.53 receptions in 9.6 targets. Being lined up opposite Tre’Davious White, McLaurin is still looking at a modest stat line on Sunday.
Based off of the model, we have a strong lean towards the WFT +7.5. As stated earlier, the model shows over a 3-point differential at 48.69 points compared to the listed number at 45. This may be an overreaction to Buffalo’s shutout last week of an injured Dolphins football team. Heinicke has shown some promise on the field and did an excellent job of making reads to find the right receiver last weekend. Given the model-generated line of Buffalo -5 and the Team Total for WFT of 21.82, it suggests the WFT scoring roughly 3-4 points more than what Sportsbooks are predicting (+7.5, 17.5 TT). For this reason, we will be backing the WFT to cover 7.5 at Buffalo.