Tampa Bay at Washington (+9.5, 51.5) CapWize Model Simulation Score, Props, & Predictions | CapWize Free Picks

Tampa Bay at Washington (+9.5, 51.5) CapWize Model Simulation Score, Props, & Predictions

Tampa Bay heads north this weekend to take on the Washington Football Team. Kickoff is Sunday at 1 PM EST in a rematch of last year’s NFC Wild Card game. Both teams are coming off a BYE; Tampa dropped their last game to the Saints 36-27, while the WFT has lost 4 straight. Can the WFT pull off the upset, or will the Bucs get back on track this weekend?


CapWize Simulation Model 


The CapWize Simulation model predicts Tampa Bay winning this game outright with a final score of 27.89 to 18.52. This gives an approximate point spread of -9.37 in favor of the Bucs, almost exactly what Vegas has posted. The point total of 46.42 is five points less than the 51.5 posted as well. To see more scores for Week 3, head to the CapWize NFL Dashboard. You can learn more about the CapWize Model here.


Recent Performances-



As mentioned earlier, both teams are coming off a BYE. For the WFT, I’m sure the break in play was welcomed. Washington has had a tough stretch of games as of late, losing 4 of the last 5 and sitting at 2-6 on the season. Losses to the Saints and Chiefs at home before road losses in Green Bay and Denver have really exploited the lackluster offense in Washington this season.


The Taylor Heinicke of the wild card playoffs is long gone – Heinicke is among the league worst in most passing stats this season, highlighted by 9 INTs and a 42.5 QBR(26th) through his first eight games. Six of those INTs have been across his last 4 games, which does not spark confidence in the kid moving forward. The WFT has scored just 33 points in their last 3 games and have failed to get their key players going on a consistent basis. Antonio Gibson has 442 rush yards on the season with 3 rushing TDs, although has fumbled 4 times with 2 of those resulting in turnovers. Terry Mclaurin is clearly their biggest offensive threat, logging 573 rec yards on 43 receptions and 4 TDs this year. JD McKissic has played his way into a passing role, and is 2nd on the team in targets and receiving yards. A pleasant surprise has been WR DeAndre Carter, who is coming off his best game posting 3 rec for 51 yards and a TD against Denver.


Despite the poor offense, the WFT defense has begun to turn it around. This was sparked by Ron Rivera deciding to move Landon Collins from safety to linebacker. While Collins doesn’t have the speed he once had, he has proven an effective run stopper and has helped get the defense going back in the right direction. Chase Young has been underwhelming so far, but the likes of Jonathon Allen and Daron Payne have been stout all season. After allowing 33 points to the Chiefs, the WFT held the Packers to 24 and the Broncos to 17. The defense is definitely coming into form, but will need to step it up big time this week with the Bucs in town.


Tampa Bay

On the other hand, Tampa Bay has been on a roll this season. Despite losing their last game, the Bucs had rallied off 6 wins in their previous 7 games. Tampa leads the NFL in passing yards/game with 327.5 and are 3rd in the league with 260 total points scored. To no one’s surprise, Tom Brady continues to be elite and leads the NFL with 25 TD passes and is 2nd in yards with 2650. He also sports a 16-5 record all time coming off a bye week, which spells more bad news for the WFT.

Leonard Fournette has assumed RB1 duties in Tampa and has 439 yards and 4 TDs on the season. Among all the weapons on offense, Chris Godwin leads the team with 50 receptions and 660 yards with 4 TDs on the season. The plethora of weapons has allowed Tampa to weather the injury storm on the offensive side of the ball. At the time of writing this, Gronk and Antonio Brown were both non-participants at Thursday’s practice and are seemingly doubtful for Sunday. This offense is a wagon and could be in for a field day against a shaky WFT secondary, who ranks dead last in the league allowing 286.8 yards/game. Tampa’s defense has had their fair share of injuries, particularly in the secondary. Despite these, Tampa is middle of the pack in pass defense and the 2nd best rushing defense in football, giving up just 78 yards/game on the ground. Their defensive front is absolutely vicious, headlined by Vita Vea, Ndamukong Suh and JPP. Devin White, Lavonte David and Shaquil Barrett are arguably the best LB core in the league as well. While the Bucs might get beat over the top, it’s about the only shot you have at moving the ball on this team. Will they lock down the struggling WFT offense?


CapWize Simulation Model 



Brady – 302.33 yards, 28.02/38.3, 2.93 TDs, 0.25 INT

Heinicke – 263.5 yards, 28.08/40.93, 2 TDs, 0.85 INT



Fournette – 42.82 yards, 11.35 att, 25.39 rec yards, 3.01 rec

Jones – 27.35 yards, 6.75 att, 12.17 rec yards, 1.5 rec

Gibson – 46.22 yards, 11.53 att, 18.25 rec yards, 2.2 rec

McKissic – 16.5 yards, 4.11 att, 39.75 rec yards, 4.5 rec



Evans – 60.76 yards, 4.72 rec, 0.6 TD

Godwin – 65.72 yards, 5.6 rec, 0.66 TD

Mclaurin – 62.61 yards, 5.37 rec, 0.48 TD



Best Bets


We will be taking the under 51.5 in this game. To be blunt, there is no scenario where we see the WFT having much offensive success against Tampa Bay. Heinicke has not shown any sort of consistency in the last 6 weeks and it may only be a matter of time before he is benched. After allowing 36 points to Trevor Semian and the Saints, it is safe to say the Bucs used their BYE week to get the defensive mishaps sorted out. The defensive front of Tampa will force Heinicke to beat them in the air, which we’re fairly sure he isn’t capable of. There is a chance that Tampa goes out and lights up the WFT defense, however, the WFT has been playing better as of late. They held Aaron Rodgers to 274 yards in Green Bay. While he racked up 3 TD passes, one of those came on a short field due to a fumble. The bottom line – we like how both defenses have been trending as of late and expect this total to come in well under the total of 51.5.



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