Ravens at Raiders (+3.5, 51)
Safe to say that the Ravens are limping into this one, which is odd to say because this is Week 1. Justice Hill, J.K Dobbins, and Gus Edwards are all out for the season with injuries. The Ravens will need a big game out of Lamar Jackson which is not a hot take at all and pretty obvious.
CapWize Simulation Model (Ravens at Raiders)
Spread & Total
The model has the game around a median score of 27.49 – 21.02 with the Raiders winning. The CapWize Model matures as the season goes on and reaches its top strength at Week 5. This score is indicative of the Raven’s injuries at the running back position. The final score of the model is 48.51, which is pretty close to the Vegas total of 50.5.
For player props, tour model has Derek Carr throwing for 280 yards and Lamar Jackson at 250 yards. Carr’s line at most books is around 261, and Jackson’s is at 214.5 yards . Josh Jacobs is projected to have 80 yards rushing and his line is at 47.5 yards. As for Jacobs, this is probably contingent on the Raiders being up and not playing from behind, so take that with a grain of salt. To see the rest of tonight’s player props, head to CapWize NFL Prop Simulator.
Best Bet(s) (Ravens at Raiders)
Based on the model, and also Josh Jacobs looks like he is going to be active, we have a strong lean to the Raiders +3.5. Our best bet though will be Ty’Son Williams over 10.5 receiving yards. The CapWize NFL Prop Simulator has Williams projected for 12.1 yards, which isn’t a huge margin over the line but we have confidence in this hitting. Raiders have let 20 backs go over that number last year alone, and at least one 14 out of 16 games. The only two games it didn’t happen were games against the Browns with 35 mphs winds and a game against the Falcons where Ito Smith was at 13 yards before he caught a pass for -3 yards.