Week 9 Picks
Vegas by far had their best weekend of the NFL season, with a majority of heavy public plays losing. Luckily, our free picks went 4-0, with me going 3-0 and Matt’s teaser play going 1-0 (you can see his teaser play for picks here). Make sure to utilize the CapWize Betting Dashboard to get up to date live odds, betting %, money % and model picks to make smarter picks.
Saints vs Buccaneers (-4.5, 50.5)
There are a few storylines in this game-
1. Antonio Brown returning to the NFL with his debut with the Buccaneers tonight.
2. Brady (561) total all-time TDs and Brees (560)
3. Michael Thomas returning after his injury in Week 1
All three of these are narratives supporting a high scoring game. potentially with a QB shootout and maybe even a big game from Brown. But, I don’t think either of these things happen.
Another storyline, which isn’t as sexy with both defenses ranking in the top 10 in both yards per game and yards per play. The Bucs struggled a bit offensively on Monday night against the Giants and will look to get back on track for a full game tonight. The weather for this one should have an impact and it looks like their will be steady winds of 13-17 with gusts up to 25mph and a 50% chance of rain expected an hour into the game.
Our CapWize Model has this game going in favor of Tampa by a score of 24-17, falling short of the total of around 50.5. Our model doesn’t factor injuries, so has no considerations to guys such as Chris Godwin and Michael Thomas, but does factor in the weather. While, I do expect a more points than 41 total, I do expect it to be under 50 with both of these defenses playing superb defense.
If you want to buy the narrative of this being an offensive shootout between Brees and Brady, so be it, but I don’t expect that with the aforementioned reasoning. One more point to consider is how effective Antonio Brown will be in his first game with the Bucs alongside Godwin and Evans. This could potential disrupt the offense but either way, I wouldn’t say Brown is an upgrade to the offense game one. My pick here is the under and don’t be surprised if you see some late money on the under in this one bring the total to 49 by kickoff.
Week 9 Teasers
Teaser #1 (6 point teaser)
- Giants +8.5
- Texans -.5
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