Week 13 Free Picks
Here are some free picks for Week 13. Make sure to utilize the CapWize Betting Dashboard to get up to date live odds, betting %, money % and model picks to make smarter picks and to see of our simulation scores. Also, check out Matt’s Teaser for week 13.
Colts vs Texans (+3.5, 50.5)
This is an interesting divisional match-up with both teams being without some key players for this game.
The Texans have lost Bradley Roby and Will Fuller to suspension and the Colts will be without their left Tackle, Anthony Castonzo, who PFF has as one of the top lineman in the NFL.
He missed last game against the Titans, where his back-up, Le’Raven Green gave up 5 pressures. He will have his hands full with JJ Watt coming full steam ahead to get to Phillip Rivers who is dealing with a toe injury.
Without Will Fuller, who had his biggest game of the season last game, the Texans will struggle to stretch the field. Watson should still find ways to make plays but they could at times look one dimensional. Duke Johnson, also returns, which will be an upgrade for the Texans running game and also is a passing threat out of the backfield.
This line opened at 52 and dropped down to 50.5 immediately, but has stayed at the mark for the last few days.
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Our model, after 1 million simulations, likes for this to be a low scoring game with a final score of 23-18 with the Colts winning. This well under the total of 50.5 but I think it is on to something.
My final score is 24-21 with the Colts winning in a close game and the under is the play in this one. Phillip Rivers has also showed some discomfort to his toe and I am curious to see how much that will bother him in this game. Expect the Texans to look to blitz Phillip Rivers and to disrupt the passing attack of the Colts.
Week 13 Teasers
Teaser #1 Risk 1.2 UNITS to win 1 unit (-120)
- Vikings -4
- Falcons +10
Low scoring game expected in ATL/NO game. Falcons should be able to keep this close with Brees out. Vikings have a great spot and Cook should be able to run for 100 yards on a defense that gives up 4.6 yards a carry.
Bonus Pick- *1 UNIT* ATL +3.5 (don’t play under 3)
This is the second time seeing Taysom Hill for the second time in just 3 weeks. Points will be at a premium and Falcons will keep this close and I won’t be surprised if Falcons might even win this outright with Julio set to play and Janoris Jenkins out for the Saint’s secondary. Model has a score of 24-22 for this one with the Saints barely squeezing it out.