Week 12 Free Picks
Here are some free picks for Week 12. Make sure to utilize the CapWize Betting Dashboard to get up to date live odds, betting %, money % and model picks to make smarter picks and to see of our simulation scores. Also, check out Matt’s Teaser for week 12.
Chargers vs Bills (+4.5, 52.5)
There are two teams in the NFL who haven’t lost by more than one score this season. One is obvious, with the Steelers being 10-0, but the other isn’t as obvious, and that’s the Chargers.
The Chargers are a lot better than their 3-7 record shows, and they should be 4-5 with games against the Broncos and the Raiders being fluke losses in the final seconds of the games.
Austin Ekeler was just activated off of IR on Saturday and should see time in this game. This is another boost to the offense, lead by Justin Herbert, who has been great so far this season.
There is also a reverse line move in this game, which we will cover on our Twitch live stream at 11am EST this Sunday morning. Make sure to join us in the morning here.
Our CapWize Model has this game, after 1 million simulations, has a median final score of 26-22 Chargers, giving value to the Chargers not only covering but winning outright.
I get that it isn’t easy to back a team like the Chargers, especially considering how they have lost games down the stretch, but this is the side to be on. The hardest bets to make usually end up being some of the best bets you’ll make.
This bet is mainly about the Chargers being extremely undervalued more than what I think about the Bills, but they are a team which I think is a tad overrated.
Week 12 Teasers
Same game teaser (6 point teaser available on PointsBet)
- Broncos +15 teased to +21
- Broncos/Saints total 37 teased to 43
BONUS PICK- (subscribers got this number at SF +7.5) but the pick is 49ers +6.5. This most likely will get down to +6 and maybe even +5.5 as it is a late afternoon game.