Week 10 Picks
Vegas by far had their best weekend of the NFL season, with a majority of heavy public plays losing. Luckily, our free picks went 4-0, with me going 2-0 and Matt’s teaser play going 1-0 (you can see his teaser play for picks here). Make sure to utilize the CapWize Betting Dashboard to get up to date live odds, betting %, money % and model picks to make smarter picks.
Bills vs Cardinals (-2.5, 56)
The 5-3 Cardinals face the 7-2 Bills in the game where the Cardinals are favored by -2.5 at home. The Cardinals are coming off a home loss against the Dolphins, in a game where the Cardinals dominated the box score, leading the Dolphins in yards per play, rushing yards and passing yards. Dolphins also scored a TD off of a strip sack of Kyler Murray.
The score and game was a tad misleading. Cardinals probably win this game 8 out of 10 times but there were some key 3rd down conversions, Tua played his ass off and the defensive touchdown was huge for Dolphins early in the game. Cardinals had some questionable coaching decisions, and watching the entirety of this game last Sunday, I really think they blew this out.
I bring this up because I do believe you are getting some value on the Cardinals, but not much, by looking at this spread at they are favored over a 7-2 team by -2.5. Look, they are at home, and I like the spot.
Bills last three games were wins against the Jets, Pats & Seahawks. I don’t really think either of these wins are that impressive considering how bad the Jets & Pats have played, and with the Seahawks having one the worst pass defenses in football. I like Josh Allen, but there is a case to be made that the Bills are overrated.
Our CapWize Model has this game, after 1 million simulations, as a median final score of 27-22 Cardinals, giving value to the Cardinals covering the -2.5 spread.
Cardinals defense has been streaky but I do believe they make necessarily changes to slow down the Bills on the offensive side of the ball.
Week 10 Teasers
Teaser #1 (6 point teaser)
- Texans +10.5
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