Matt’s Week 9 NFL Teaser

Finally back to some winning ways. Tom Brady and the Bucs made us sweat out the last leg of our tease, but we got the pick in early in the week, when the line was TB -11…instead of at game time, when it rose all the way to TB -12.5. Here’s our recap of week 8:

 

KC -9 ✅

MIN-GB O38 ✅

TB -1 ✅

 

Our teaser picks are now 5-3 on the season, so let’s keep it going this weekend! There’s a ton of games I like this week, so we’re gonna go with a 10 point tease that pays -120. Let’s jump right in!

 

 

 

Leg #1: New York @ Washington  Giants +3  ➡️  +13  ✅

 

I hate doing it…I really do…but, I’m putting my money in the hands of Daniel Jones on the road. It’s becoming more and more clear that Jones just isn’t ‘the guy’ in New York. Throughout his career he’s averaged 1.5 turnovers a game and he consistently misses open receivers.

 

However, as CapWize’s Ben Cary points out, it’s advantageous to tease games with low O/Us because the game is expected to be low scoring and tighter. The O/U on this matchup is 43, which is by far the lowest on the slate. Vegas projects this to be a 23-20 game and I have to agree. When these two teams matched up in week 6, it was a 20-19 victory for the Giants.

 

The big reason I love this teaser play is that I don’t think the Washington offense led by Kyle Allen has the capacity to beat any team in the NFL by more than 2 touchdowns. They have beaten Philly by 10 and Dallas by 22, but Ben DeNucci played half that game and Dalton has just been terrible. I see a close matchup in this one, maybe like a 20-17 game. I like the Giants to win outright on Sunday.

 

 

Leg #2: Houston @ Jacksonville  Texans -7  ➡️ +3  ✅

 

DeShaun Watson or Jake Luton…I wonder how this one is going to go. Plain and simple, Luton was a 6th round pick in 2020’s draft and is now starting for the Jacksonville Jaguars. This teaser candidate is pretty chalky, but teasing the Texans is just too easy this week. This team needs a victory and who better to do it against than Jacksonville with a rookie 6th rounder at QB.

 

I’m just going to keep this one short. If the Texans actually somehow lose this game, we can still hit this leg at Houston +3.

 

 

 

Leg #3: Pittsburgh @ Dallas   Steelers -14  ➡️  -4  ✅

 

Probably the most chalky pick of the week, but c’mon it should be. Garrett Gilbert will be starting for the Boys on Sunday against the best defense in football. The Steelers are 7-0 and look like one of the most complete teams in the NFL.

 

If Garrett Gilbert were to lead the Cowboys to victory against this defense…it would be one of the most shocking outcomes of an NFL game I have ever seen. The Steelers aren’t losing this game. That is all.