Matt’s Week 7 NFL Teaser

Week 6 was a perfect example of why you should always  _____.

 

Hedge.

 

CIN +21 ✅

PHI +22.5 ✅

ATL +17 ✅

GB +12  ❌

 

Our first three teaser picks went beautifully and not a single one was ever in doubt. Then Green Bay starts up 10-0…and goes on to lose by 28. Unbelievable. The lesson this week is that there is no shame in hedging. It’s always better to go home with some money than none at all.

We’re now 4-2 on the season and week 6 left quite the bitter taste in my mouth, but hey shit happens. On to week 7! We’re going with a 10 point tease that pays -120. Let’s check it out! Also, take a look at our CapWize Betting Dashboard which includes projected scores from our simulation model (AND IT HAS BE ON FIRE).

 

 

Leg #1: New York @ Buffalo   Bills -12.5  ➡️  -2.5  ✅

 

There have been murmurs and rumblings around the league that the Jets are openly tanking the 2020 season. There’s been reports that members within the organization are rooting against this team and allowing Flacco to play so they can start over next year with a new coach and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. It’s pretty shameful, but whatever I’m here to make money on their embarrassing decisions. The Bills are coming off of two pretty brutal losses to KC and TEN, so they need a ‘get right’ game more than anyone in the NFL…and who better to play when you need a win than the Jets? The Bills are 3-16 over their last 19 games against playoff teams with Sean McDermott. Buffalo just tends to beat up on these teams like the Giants, Jets, and Lions. I like Buffalo -13 straight up, but let’s tease them to -3 on Sunday.

 

 

 

Leg #2: Detroit @ Atlanta  O/U  56.5  ➡️ 46.5   Over  ❌

 

I don’t tease O/U’s much because historically I haven’t been great at them, but let’s check out the O/U in the Detroit-Atlanta game. Plain and simple, if you’re a daily fantasy player, you’re stacking this game. These two defenses combined are allowing 835 yards/game! The O/U is really high at 56.5, c’mon…do you really see this game ending 17-14? Hell no! Atlanta has one of the best offenses in the NFL and Detroit has had a sneaky good offense in recent weeks as well. I think this will be the most entertaining game of the weekend and I see a score of like 37-34 on Sunday. Let’s tease this game to 46.5, so if it ends 24-23 we’re good to go.

 

 

Leg #3: Kansas City @ Denver  O/U 46.5  ➡️ 56.5  Under  ❌

 

Back in 2018, I went on like a 5 week winning streak where I teased the under on Denver’s games every single week. The simple reason is because their defense is always elite and their offense just can’t put the ball in the end zone…they kicked 6 freaking field goals last week. In Mahomes 5 career games against the Broncos, here are the combined points that have been put up by these teams:

 

Week 18, 2017:   51

Week 4, 2018:    50

Week 8, 2018:    53

Week 7, 2019:    36

Week 15, 2019:  26

 

When these teams play there just isn’t a lot of scoring…on either side. There are also weather concerns in Denver this weekend and with the altitude factor, I just don’t see a ton of points getting scored in this game. Kansas City also has been a sneaky top 10 defense so far this year, I like the under on its own, let’s bump it up to 56.5. I should also mention that we can hedge this game if our first two picks win. 😬