DAL -2.5 ✅
ARI -0.5 ✅
Week 5 had to be one of the biggest sweats I’ve ever had as a bettor. In my article a few weeks ago (https://capwize.com/the-three-most-triggering-ways-to-lose-an-nfl-bet/) I mentioned how awful it is to lose a bet when your team’s quarterback goes out with an injury and that’s exactly what happened in the NYG-DAL game. Dak Prescott brutally broke his ankle and Andy Dalton came in an immediately fumbled at his own 18 yard line. Unbelievable. The Cowboys nearly blew our week 5 teaser, but thanks to Greg Zuerlein, we won and are now 4-1 on the year.
Checking out the lines for week 6, there are some UGLY matchups on Sunday like WSH-NYG, DET-JAX, and CHI-CAR. I want a safe teaser this week, so I’m going with a 13 pointer that pays -130. Let’s check it out shall we!
Leg #1: Atlanta @ Minnesota Falcons +4 ➡️ +17 ✅
What do both of these teams have in common? They’re both better than what their record shows. The Falcons should probably be 2-3 and the Vikings are more like a 3-2 team. I wanted to tease one of these teams because I think this game is going to end up something like 30-24 or 37-30 and I had trouble deciding whether to do Falcons +17 or Vikings +9…I actually like both lines in a teaser, but giving the Falcons 17 points is just the safer play. Yes, Atlanta is 0-5, but they have lost games by 7, 1, 4, 14, and 7 points. The Falcons just keep games close. With Julio back, I think Atlanta can definitely win this game outright, but let’s tease them to +17 on Sunday. Not to mention, the coach just got fired element, I love Atlanta in this tease.
Leg #2: Cincinnati @ Indianapolis Bengals +8 ➡️ +21 ✅
Coming into Sunday, the most confusing line of the week to me is the Colts being favored by 8 against the Bengals. Indianapolis doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown against ANYBODY!(Just Ask Jacksonville) Yes, the Colts are 3-2, but Phillip Rivers has been atrocious this year. This line should be Colts-5.5 because Rivers hasn’t thrown more than one touchdown pass in any game this season AND he’s had two games where he’s thrown 2 INT. This Bengals team is getting slept on because they lost last week 27-3 to Baltimore, but Cincinnati isn’t that bad. The Bengals lost to the Browns by 5, the Chargers by 3, and tied the Eagles. Look for Joe Burrow to come back strong against the Colts this week. No chance they lose by 22+ to this Indy squad.
Leg #3: Baltimore @ Philadelphia Eagles +9.5 ➡️ +22.5 ✅
The Eagles have been in shambles this year, there’s no doubt. Philly fans are calling for Carson Wentz’s head and they’ve dealt with a ton of injuries thus far. However, I think this line is just too high for this Philly squad. Philadelphia hasn’t looked great, but they also haven’t looked terrible. For a home team that made the playoffs last year being nearly 10 point underdogs is just crazy to me. I like Philly +9.5 on its own, but let’s bump this game up to +22.5. It will be closer than some might think.
Leg #4: Green Bay @ Tampa Bay Packers -1 ➡️ +12 ❌
I’ve mentioned this before, but Green Bay has been my favorite team to tease in the NFL over the last two years. The Packers are 17-3 over the last two seasons and this week they finally get Davante Adams back. Tom and the Bucs have been the MOST inconsistent team of the 2020 season. They’ve beaten up the Panthers, Chargers, and Broncos, but when they play good teams like the Bears(who aren’t even that good) and the Saints…they lose. The 43-year-old Brady hasn’t looked great thus far, while Aaron Rodgers is an MVP candidate. Getting the Packers as 12 point underdogs is just too easy. If our first three picks hit, we can hedge this 3:25 game as well. Lock it and forget it. 🔒