Matt’s Week 13 NFL Teaser

Vegas made a tonnnnnnn of money this past week with games like NYG-CIN, ARI-NE, and SF-LAR, however we were still able to come out on top in week 12 and I’m really proud of that:

WAS-DAL  U57 ↔️

NYG +4  ✅

GB +1 ✅

 

Now, we did push the WAS-DAL over/under, but when that happens books just bump our winnings down by about 30%. No matter, we still won money this past weekend, so it’s a W. We’re now 8-4 on the year and in this NFL season that has been filled with chaos, I can’t complain about that record.

The playoff picture is starting to take shape in both conferences and their our some BIG games this week that could decide seeding like GB-PHI and LAR-ARI. I like a lot of matchups this weekend, so let’s checkout our 3-team 10 point tease this week.

 

Leg #1: Minnesota @ Jacksonville  Vikings -10  ➡️  PK  ✅

Betting on Kirk Cousins is never fun…that much we know. Everyone knows his record against teams with winning records and his primetime game resume, but where does Kirk succeed? Noon games against shitty teams. Go back and look over the last four seasons. Cousins can’t beat teams like Seattle or New England in primetime games, but he has excellent numbers against teams like the Raiders, Jets, and Detroit in afternoon contests.

 

The Vikings are 5-6 and need this W or their season is basically over. I fully expect the Vikings to come out guns ablazing on Sunday and torch this Jags defense that is allowing the 3rd most total yards to opposing offenses. Thielen, Jefferson, and Cook should pick apart this defense. Not only that, but the Viking’s secondary finally had a good week against Carolina last week. All we’re looking for is a Vikings W on Sunday and this leg hits.

 

 

 

Leg #2: New York @ Seattle  Seahawks -11  ➡️  -1  ❌

 

I remember the good old days of the Colt McCoy led Texas Longhorns lighting the NCAA world on fire. Unfortunately, those days are over and McCoy has been a backup basically for the last decade. Colt has started a total of 8 games over the last five seasons and he now gets thrown into the wolves on the road vs. Russell Wilson.

 

I know this is a very chalky pick as Seattle will most definitely be in like 75% of teasers that Vegas receives this weekend, but can you really envision McCoy going to Seattle and taking down Wilson and the Seahawks? If there was an ‘upset scale’ 1-10, McCoy defeating Wilson in Seattle would be like a 16. The Seahawks need this game and I just can’t see this Giants offense doing much with Colt under center. Give me Seattle -1 on Sunday.

 

 

Leg #3: Denver @ Kansas City  Chiefs -13  ➡️  -3  ✅

 

I think the theme of my tease this week is pretty obvious: heavy favorites. There are too many other games that just scare me to death to tease like NE @ LAC, CLE @ TEN, and DET @ CHI. I think this week we just count our money that we’ve won this year and throw it on good teams playing bad teams. Pretty simple strategy.

 

KC clobbered the Broncos in Denver 43-16 in week 7, now the Chiefs get a crack at them again on their home turf. The Chiefs desperately want that first round bye and I believe the Steelers will slip up in the next several weeks. Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos in his career and I don’t see it happening Sunday either. This game is the primetime SNF game and I don’t see Mahomes blowing it on national television. We need Kansas City to win by a FG, but that shouldn’t be a problem.