Early Week 4 NFL Model Predictions

All lines come from Draftkings. See all the model picks on our new CapWize Betting Dashboard. All lines will be available shortly. The CapWize Model will get stronger as the season matures and we have more 2020 games played.

 

DEN (-2.5) @ NYJ (40)

In yet another Thursday night battle of terrible teams, the model likes NYJ and the UNDER.

IND (-2.5) @ CHI (45)

The model likes IND and the UNDER, although there is less than half a games worth of Nick Foles that the model sees, so I would assume the Bears and the over outperform the model projection a little bit.

NO (-4) @ DET (54)

The model likes NO and the UNDER.

ARI(-3.5) @ CAR (52.5)

The model correctly called a Panthers win last week as 6.5 point underdogs, and it likes them here again. CAR and the UNDER.

JAX @ CIN (-3) (47.5)

The model likes CIN to cover and the OVER.

CLE @ DAL (-4.5) (55)

DAL to cover and the UNDER. I don’t think the model quite trusts Cleveland’s offense yet despite two solid showings in a row.

MIN @ HOU (-3.5) (54.5)

The model called both of these teams to win last week as underdogs and they both fell a hair short. MIN to win outright and the OVER.

SEA (-6.5) @ MIA (54)

The model likes MIA to barely cover, which makes me very uncomfortable. Also likes the UNDER.

LAC @ TB (-7.5) (45)

TB to cover and the OVER.

PIT (-2) @ TEN (47)

PIT and the UNDER in a game that might not even get played because of COVID. At least both teams would still be undefeated going into week 5.

BAL (-13) @ WAS (47)

After a disappointing game last week against the Chiefs, the model once again likes BAL to cover along with the OVER.

NYG @ LAR (-13) (47.5)

In a prediction very reminiscent of last week’s Jets-Colts prediction, the model likes the dumpster fire that is NYG to barely cover, as well as the UNDER. I buy the under, but I fully expect the Rams to cover this one. I think the Giants are still getting too much of a boost from games with Barkley.

NE @ KC (-7) (53.5)

KC to cover and the OVER. The Chiefs look unstoppable.

BUF (-3) @ LV (52.5)

As I’ve said before, there is something about the way the Bills play that the model doesn’t like. It sees the game as a 27-27 tie on average, which means that LV covers and the game goes OVER.

PHI (-2.5) @ SF (-7) (45)

Despite all of their injuries, the 49ers looked good last week against the dumpster fire Giants. Facing another dumpster fire, the model likes SF and the OVER. Both of these are extremely close though so any line movement could shift both of those calls.

ATL @ GB (-7) (58)

The Falcons look great. Until they fall apart and look terrible. GB to cover and the OVER.

To have access to all the model predictions, including the exact simulation scores, top teaser picks, top ML plays and top daily picks, reach out to me at bcary@capwize.com for more info on becoming a subscriber.