9/20 Free Picks (NFL & NBA)

NFL

For these plays, a strong lean is a play that I like and endorse but not personally betting it. A pick is one that I am betting and tracking for record purposes.

Giants vs Bears (-5.5, 43)

I covered this game in the podcast below.

Apple Podcast Link

Teams that lost in week 1 by 10 or more points are 11-2 ATS in week 2 when on the road. I typically don’t like to use trends but this one makes sense and is practical, and here’s why-

This is a classic overreaction spot as the Bears are lucky to come away with a win in week 1. Giants played a very good defensive team (Steelers) and should be able to get Saquon Barkley going against the Bears defense. Adrian Peterson, at 35 years old, almost rushed for 100 yards at almost 6 yards a carry.

If Swift catches that pass in the endzone, this line is closer to -2 for the Bears. Take the value and take the Giants at +5.5. I also love Saquon Barkley over 30.5 receiving yards and +110 to score a TD. AP and Swift combined for 6 catches for 36 yards against the Bears defense. The over of 68.5 rushing yards is another good prop to look at, or over 99.5 total rushing and receiving yards.

Pick- Giants +6 & Saquon Over 30.5 receiving yards

Strong Lean- Over 99.5 totals yard & over 68.5 rushing yards. Giants ML +213

Teaser plays

Make sure to check out Matt Sandell’s two team teaser play here (his teaser one last weekend).

My teaser plays last week went 3-0 and here’s what I have for Sunday (learn more about teasers here)

Teaser #1 (+120)

  • Bucs -2 (from -8)
  • Broncos +13 (from +7)

Teaser #1 (+120)

  • Bucs -2 (from -8)
  • Giants +11.5 (from +5.5)

To see the rest of our NFL plays and to get live plays, join the discord channel .

NBA

Nuggets vs Lakers (-7.5, 213)

Nuggets are such an unique team as they seem not to play to their potential until their backs are against the wall. They came back down 3-1 against the Jazz and then lost by 20 in game 1 of the series against the Clippers. And again, they came back down 3-1 against the Clippers and then lost big to the Lakers in Game 1.

I like for them to keep close in game 2 and potentially win this game. The under is also the play here as game 1 had a ridiculous amount of fouls and FTs. I can almost guarantee you that the refs won’t call game 2 as tight.

Expect Jokic to have a big game as he was in foul trouble all of game 1 and scoring 21 in just 25 minutes. I like his over for points at 23.5 and that might be my favorite play of this game.

Ultimately, I expect this to be another tight defensive game, just without the egregious amount of foul calls & free throws, which will cause the score to go lower.

Pick- Under 213 (-110) & Jokic Over 23.5 Points (+100)

Strong Lean- Nuggets +7.5 (+110)

 

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