This is my favorite time of the year to sports bet. With games going on all day from Thursday to Sunday, it is a bettors paradise. The last three years, I have come significantly on top and I will share with you a few tips that have helped me to have continued success every March betting on the tournament games.
The 12 vs 5 match-up
Over the last 10 years, No. 12 seeds are an impressive 25-14-1 against the spread while also going 19-21 straight up. They are 12-7-1 ATS combined over the past five years alone. The 12 seeds I like best is New Mexico State over Clemson. Aggies rank in the top ten in rebounding and near the top in the Pomeroy defensive rankings. NMSU will have a favorable crowd as they make the short trip to San Diego, and Clemson is traveling cross country. I may bet on them straight up but certainly against the spread, as Clemson opened as a -5 favorite.
The 11 vs 6 match-up
No. 11 seeds are 11-9 SU and 12-8 ATS in the last five years. The 11 seeds I like to cover the spread are Loyola-Chicago which are +2 underdogs to Miami Florida. Syracuse and Arizona State match-up in a play in the game and I am confident that Syracuse will win that game and will go on to beat TCU. Syracuse usually plays well in the tournament and the 2-3 zone is no joke.
Parlays…Take it easy
Look, we all to win a big 4 or 5 game parlay. But, the odds are just not in our favor, especially if you are doing a 5 game parlay with all teams ATS. A $20 5 game parlay pays approximately $500. I still will be doing a few parlays for the first two rounds, but I am going to do a few parlays of 4 teams but better odds and bet on teams straight up. A 4 team parlay with an average team odds of -250 pays x3. I will be throwing in a few of these, and a maybe one or two big parlays ATS. I think of it like roulette in a sense, where the better odd parlays and regular single-game bets are like betting on red or black, and the bigger game parlays are you betting on single numbers across the board, for a bigger payout. Check the website the next few days for my detailed parlays and top picks I like.
Know your US Geography AKA Google it!
Long travel with wear on a team, and also not having a lot of fans on a neutral court. If you feel like you are in a position where you really like a team to bet on, take a look to see if they are playing close to home, and let that be what pushes you over the edge. A few easy travel games for teams are
Some factors that you should take a look at are rebounding percentages, defense rankings, free throw percentages, and head coaches that have had previous experience in the tournament in previous years. With the help of one of my close friends, who graduated with Applied Math from college, we have developed an algorithm with some of this key factors/indicators. The picks based off of this formula will be available free to you. Just make sure to follow the site in the next few days. These picks will not be based solely off of the algorithm, but will be helpful at what games we should take a closer look at. After we identify these games, we will use past trends and the eye test to help pick some of our favorite games.