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Royals vs Cardinals -1.5 (+115)- Homer Bailey, I must say you have proven me wrong this year (but just twice). Homer Bailey is inconsistent, as you can see from his last several games . This Cardinal’s offense has Homer’s number. They are batting .364 on 204 ABs with 10 HRs. This is a strong enough sample size at 200 ABs to use this to handicap this match-up. Wacha for the Cardinals should have a decent outing, but the Cards are going to jump all over Bailey tonight. Expect a 8-4 type of game tonight at Busch Stadium.
Rockies -135 (F5) vs Pirates- German Marquez faces off against Chris Archer in Pittsburgh tonight. Archer has given up 15 runs in 12.7 innings of work in his last 3 games. All those games were against NL West foes also and at this point, it has gotten mental for him. I actually believe he has a average outing, but this play is more about Marquez than it is Archer for me.
Last game was a rough one for Marquez against the hot Red Sox bats on the road. He gave up 5 runs in 6.3 innings of work. His stats before that were a.125 ERA with a .180 wOBA thus far. Last season, Marquez allowed a .203 ERA with a .265 wOBA. All-time, Marquez has a 3.46 road ERA with a .297 wOBA. At home in Coors Field, Marquez has a .341 wOBA against in 918 plate appearances. Marquez is a road warrior and I am confident that he bounces back against the Pirates. Don’t look too much into the recency bias on him
Bucks vs Raptors +3 (217.5)
There is a popular stat circulating around the internet, which is the Bucks –“Including the playoffs, their record is at 22-1 SU and 19-4 ATS after a loss. The win margin in the 22 wins is 16.09!” Two things about this,
I actually like the Greek Freak to have a big game tonight but the Raptors are tough to beat at home. I have a slight lean with the Raptors +3 tonight and the over of 217.5. Prediction is Raptors 114-110.
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