49ers vs Cardinals (+10, 43)
Safe to say that the 49ers are the surprise team of the year lead by one of the top defenses in the NFL. They face a Cardinals team that is exceeding expectations slightly on the year with decent play from Kyler Murray.
Tonight we have a spread of +10 for the home team and a hot San Fransisco team. Thursday Night games can always get fishy, especially when you have a double-digit favorite on the road. This line opened at -7 and quickly moved to 10. Loved the 49ers at +7 and not I lean Cardinals now up +10.
Expect the 49ers to run the ball on 65-70% of their offensive plays. Tevin Coleman had an outstanding performance last game and also Matt Breida is a weapon out of the backfield. I would look to target unders for 49er players as far as receptions and yards go.
I lean under tonight for the reason mentioned above regarding my anticipation of the 49ers running the ball with a lead and keeping the clock ticking. Furthermore, the Cardinals have collectively gone up against the worst defenses, ranking 32 out of 32 teams in defense faced. The Arizona offense is overrated and will face the best defense they have seen all year.
I have this being a low scoring game with the 49ers winning 23-14 and the under hitting. Cardinals will score a late TD in this one!
Strong Lean- Under 43
Slight Lean- Cardinals +10
Teaser Idea (6 point teaser)-
- 49ers -4 (teased down from -10)
- Under 49 (teased up from 43)
- Total Rushing Yards – Kyler Murray (0ver 29.5)(-115)- With a mobile QB and a pash rush, this is a good combination for this over to hit. Murray should be playing from behind, so he will have many opportunities to run the ball if he finds no one open. I have him with seven rushes for 35 yards tonight.
- Total Rushing Yards – Kenyon Drake (under 38.5)(-115)- Cardinals will use a trio of backs tonight- Alfred Morris, Zach Zenner and Kenyon Drake. I expect a 40%, 30%, 30% three-way split for the three back (in that order). Even if Drake gets 50% of the snaps tonight, which is highly doubtful, they most likely will be playing from behind. Throwing a new running back into the offense is one thing from the rushing side of things, but schematically, the most difficult concept to grasp is passing block assignments and check down routes. This will lower his snaps for tonight and Cardinals can’t just plug him in just for run plays, as a solid group of defensive coaches will be all over that (we can this a tendency). Futhermore, this traded was processed Sunday evening. Drake most likely didn’t arrive in San Fransisco Monday afternoon. It is Thursday Night, so essentially Drake has had 2 days to prepare for this game and to learn a brand new offense. Kliff Kingsbury runs a unique offense, using a lot of college terms and concepts (different from what Drake ran into Miami). Still not convinced? 49ers have the number one rush defense in football.
- Total Passing Yards – Jimmy Garoppolo (under 249.5) (-105)- This is going to be a ground and pound ball control game for the 49ers on offense tonight and I like the under here.
- Total Receiving Yards – Emmanuel Sanders (under 49.5)(-110)- This is 6-7 yards too high and damn I miss Sanders from being in Denver, but for tonight he will go for 4 catches for 39 yards
- Total Receiving Yards – George Kittle (SF) (under 71.5)(+135)- If this was an -110/-110 bet, I wouldn’t play it at 71.5, and it would have to around 82 yards. The odds of +135 are sexy for the under and this is a great value play.
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49ers vs Cardinals
49ers vs Cardinals