Our goal at CapWize is to give you sports betting tips, tricks & insights that the top professional handicappers and sports betting companies use. This article below shares some tips that other companies & handicappers typically won’t share with the public. We have noticed this over the years but we are willing to give you the knowledge we have access to here at CapWize. We went 210-160 (ATS) last year in College Basketball, hitting 57% of our bets, and ended up 35 units. We used a lot of these tips below to help us get on top. For more information, click here. Without further ado, here are the 10 tips-
Take a look at the total returning minutes for a specific team from the previous season. Teams with more returning minutes will have an edge ATS in the first few games before the market adjusts. Experience is huge and this is typically why you see the “one and done” type of schools struggle in the first several games of the year as from as covering games ATS.
Teams with a higher percentage of returning minutes will have a better likelihood of getting off to a great start and cover spreads before the market adjusts (catching up to them).
Some of the notable teams with a high percentage of returning minutes are Colorado, Illinois-Chicago, USF, Richmond, Air Force, Davidson & Saint Marys.
Nebraska is dead last on list, and no surprise they lost both of their first two games ATS and straight up.
You can see the full list, where is complied by Bart Torvik.
This is an angle that I have absolutely taken advantage of (and my favorite on this list). If you have never experienced physical exertion at higher altitude, it is a real thing. This is a story for another day as far as getting into the science of how the body actually gets less than 23% oxygen to the blood if not acclimated to altitude (it takes 2 weeks to acclimate).
This is something that I will start more effectively start tracking and there isn’t a lot of material on this available, but this is actually a good thing as it isn’t as known to the betting public.
The best angle to take with altitude is to target home teams who play in a high elevation facing a team from a lower elevation. Furthermore, you should target these home teams facing a team on a long road trip.
There will be several opportunities with this angle in the first half of the regular season, with many non-conference teams traveling to these locations. Look to target teams such as Colorado, Colorado State, Air Force, Northern Colorado, Utah, BYU, New Mexico and Southern Utah to name of few.
When lines are released, the public tends to bet on the favorite, causing the line to go up.
Last year, we had Duke at home facing Army, and the line opened at -31. The line moved from -31, where it opened, to -38 where is closed. Having a line move of seven is huge, and if you could have a -31 vs a -38, you would be feeling great. For this example, it didn’t matter what number you got as Duke won 94-72 (winning by 22).
A game where a line was significant, was North Carolina vs North Carolina Wilmington last year in December. The line opened up at -26 for the Tar Heels and the line closed at -28.5. UNC won by 28 and if you got the latest line, you wouldn’t have won money on this bet. Closing line value is important and you want to make sure you can get the best number possible.
The best way to do this is via the Action Network. This is also great if you aren’t even betting money and just want to track how you perform, essentially, in a risk-free environment. Use this link to sign up. If you are betting college basketball or are thinking about betting on CBB, downloading this app is an absolute must.
This app has personally helped me win countless bets over the last year with betting percentage numbers, sharp money numbers, and updated injury reports.
This is one of my favorite stats to take a look at as a predictor of teams performing well ATS. There is a strong correlation with teams that have a higher ORB and winning ATS.
We like to use this metric vs defensive rebounding or total offensive rebounds. This is because offensive rebounds will typically be around the hoop and lead to an immediate bucket or secondhand points. Teams that play at a slower will have less total offensive rebounds, so using total & balances this out.
I am just going to leave this one here. Okay fine, I know you don’t like this tip already. If you are going to beat on your favorite team, just don’t be shocked when they lose. A pro-tip that I once heard was called the happiness hedge. This is betting a small amount against your favorite team will put you in a win-win situation. But do you have the “guts” to ever bet against your favorite team?
Most schools will play in some sort of non-conference early-season tournament (around Thanksgiving). These include- The Battle 4 Atlantis, Maui Invitational, Mrytle Beach Invitational and Charleton Classic (to name a few).
Most schools play in these tournaments year after year, so you can date back and see how the teams performed against the spread. Remember, if you are going to be betting teams ATS you know to look at ATS records and not their straight up record. If a team is favored by 13 points and wins by 9, they lost “ATS”.
This is important because it speaks to how a head coach gets his players prepared to play away from home in a vacation type of environment. Mark Few of Gonzaga has been a solid coach ATS in these tournaments and that is just one that comes to mind.
Sharp money can be easily tracked on the Action Network and this is when there is a higher percentage of money on one team vs the amount bets on the team.
For example- Iowa is facing DePaul and 56% betting tickets are going on Iowa, but 85% of the total money is going on Iowa covering the spread of -9.5. In this example, the sharp money is going on Iowa by a significant percentage. The image above is from Action Network.
The idea behind this is that “sharp” bettors are betting a larger amount of money on games, and in this case, on Iowa -9.5. When you see heavy “sharp” money collectively on one team vs the other team, you more times than not want to be on that side of the bet than on the other side.
Sharp bettors are usually more experienced bettors, so this is a safe assumption more times than not. I wouldn’t just blindly bet a team receiving the sharp money, but it is a factor that can contribute to your handicap on a specific game.
Betting the under on the total is never asexy bet, but when you identify games that have inflated totals, these can be some of the best bets to make all CBB season. I like to target teams with a slow pace of play and also teams that do not foul frequently.
Mastering the under the total bet will take your CBB handicapping to new heights. Remember, the public more times than not likes to bet on the over, so this causes the line to go up, which gives sharps an advantageous opportunity to bet opposite this move.
Under bets can be risky due to fouls in the last minute of the game and also if a game goes into overtime. I bet on the Southern Utah/Nebraska Under 148 last weekend, and the game total was significantly under the total of 148. The game, unfortunately, went into overtime. To make things even more frustrating, the under was still intact in the first OT, but the game went into a second OT and the game finally went over the total.
You can look to bet on the first half under as well, which is always an option if you don’t want to deal with these two factors. Note- First half totals aren’t usually 50/50 splits on the full game total considering there are usually more points scored in the second half of college basketball games.
Last but certainly not least, is bankroll management. I could share ten tips on this topic alone but I will keep it simple for now.
Have a plan headed into the CBB season has far as your unit size goes. If you are a decent CBB bettor, one unit can be your typical bet size. If you are newer or haven’t had a lot of success betting CBB, you can bet .5 or .75 as your typical play. You can also double up on plays you really like a lot but I would only do this if you feel you have a very strong handicap.
If there was one reason I would have to pick as to win people lose money sports betting, a bad bankroll management plan would be #1.
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