10/5 Free Picks (Monday Night Football)

NFL

Patriots vs Chiefs (-11, 49)

Brian Hoyer gets the start tonight for Cam Newton who was tested positive for Covid-19 a few days back. Hoyer has been serviceable over his 10+ year career, with a 43-29 TD to INT ratio, 58% completion percentage and a 16-22 W/L split. He is a veteran at this point, and won’t turn the ball over. Having said that, can he come out on the road and be effective?

Capwize Simulation Model

The model has the game around a median score of 31-16 with the Chiefs winning. It prefers the Chiefs covering the spread more than the score going under the total. Note that the model does not factor in Cam Newton being out of this one, so that may add some value to the other as well.

Props-

Bill Belichick knows this offense of the Chiefs well and I don’t think we see a shootout by any means in this one. I like the under of 297.5 passing yards from Mahomes. Hopefully, Chiefs will be in a comfortable position in the 4th quarter, and won’t need to air out the ball. Patriots also have the 10th ranked passing defense and Expect Mahomes to end up around 270 passing yards in this one.

Patrick Mahomes (under 297.5 passing yards)

Picks-

My strong lean is with the under here, and there will also be some heavy wind in the first half of this game. New England also in 4th in points allowed in the first half with 9 on average, and I like the (1H) under of 24 points. Furthermore, expect Brian Hoyer to get 2-3 drives under his belt before he gets in any sort of rhyme.

*1 unit* (1H) under 24 

 

Falcons vs Packers (-6, 56.5)

The winless Falcons head to Green Bay to take on the undefeated Packers. The Falcons have been in many of their games but can’t seem to figure out to finish them and end up with wins. Devonte Adam is out of the match-up with an injury and that may hurt the Packers a bit offensively, but expect Lazard and Jones to get more touches/targets tonight. Adams was out of the Saints/GB game last weekend and the Packers were able to do damage with the ball and ultimately win the game.

Capwize Simulation Model-

The model has the game around a median score of 32-24 with the Falcons winning. Again, the model does not see much value on either the Falcons or Packers covering, and neither does it find value in the over or under.

 

Props-

With Julio Jones back in the lineup tonight, expect a very steady passing attack against the 20th ranked passing defense in the NFL. Furthermore, I anticipate the Falcons being behind in this one, so I like Matt Ryan to have a big passing night. I do believe you are getting some value here as last game Matt Ryan only threw for 238 yards going 19/38. This was against top 10 ranked passing defense and Falcons were up a majority of that game also.

Matt Ryan (over 305.5 passing yards)

 

Picks-

Nothing official from me but my lead would be with the Falcons +6.

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