We have a fun match-up between #1 Clemson and #7 Miami. Even with the Hurricanes being #7, the Tigers are still favored by over 2 TDs.
Miami is 3-0 and coming off two straight games with the total going over. Both these games were against Louisville and Florida State, which are two defenses that are subpar. This will be the best defensive that Miami will see all season. Clemson is coming off a game that went over the total, beating UVA 41-23. I think you are getting a little value here because of this, maybe a point to a point and a half.
We are seeing 77% of the betting ticket going on the over, but that is only accounting for 36% of the total money. This signals that the bigger bets are going on the under, and this is known as “sharp money”.
Furthermore, there could be some weather affecting this game. Looks like 10-15 mph winds and 40% of rain from kickoff to about halftime, which makes me feel better about this under hitting. Wind is great for an under as it effects the passing game and forces teams to run the ball which keeps the clock ticking.
The one thing I worry about is a complete letdown on the road by this Miami team but my thought is this team is different from the past. Clemson also has some concerns in the secondary so this could potential lead to a late score in the game. Ultimately, the weather should cancel a lot of this out.
I do think Clemson covers this spread, even though they are 0-3 ATS this season. Ultimately, I think Clemson controls this game at home and wins this one somewhere around 35-20.
There are a few games that will be impacted by weather on Saturday. High winds can impact the totals and favor the under. I wouldn’t blindly bet the unders in this situation but it is important to look at when handicapping a game. Pittsburgh vs Boston College and Alabama vs Mississippi are two other games that will have high winds and/or rain.
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