A unit is recommended for 1/2 free picks below. Of the games I list as strong leans, play these if you already had a lean to these plays yourself (or you just want action on). All the games listed below as a pick are all tracked via Action Network.
Tennessee has certainly turned their season around, winning their last five games after starting off the season losing to Georgia State and BYU at home. Indiana is a team that has exceeded expectations, winning eight games on the season. They beat the teams that they were suppose to beat and lost to teams that they were suppose to lose to. Indiana was expected to go 6-6 but ended up 8-4 because of strong offensive play led by Quarterback Peyton Ramsey.
The Vols come into this one with the 25th ranked passing defense and the Hoosier offense ranks 17th passing on the offensive side of the ball. I do expect that Volunteers to have a decent day overall on defense but I expect Ramsey and the offensive to get points on the board throughout the game. What I expect is a Tennessee to be up in the second half and for the Hoosiers to really air out the ball in the second half.
Hoosiers have a top 25 pace of play and this certainly favors the over. Tennessee is in the bottom third with pace, but this is no surprise as SEC football typically has a slower pace of play. With this being a bowl game and against a non-conference foe, you should see this pace increase a bit, especially against a team that has a defense which isn’t the strength of their team.
Jarrett Guarantano, Juaun Jennings and Ty Chandler should have their way against Indiana’s defense today and I like for the Vols to come up on top with a score of 31-27.
Pick- Over 55
Slight Lean- Tennessee -3
Nuggets are coming off a bad performance in Houston where they lost by 26. Gary Harris was out due to a shin injury and according to my close source, he will not be playing tonight. Harris’s presence is felt more on the defensive side of the ball than on offense. This means extended minutes for MPJ who possess more a skill set on the offensive side of the ball than on defense.
The Pacers rank 20th on possessions per game and Nuggets rank 27th. The Nuggets pace is even slower on the road and both teams are in the top ten in defense. But with Harris out, this totally changes the final score, and Harris’s perimeter defense will be missed.
I have the Pacers winning a close one tonight with a score of 107-105.
Pick- Over 208.5
Slight Lean- Pacers -1.5
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